A third of registered Latino voters think neither of the country’s two main political parties is trying to reach out to them. Those voters are strongly undecided about who they will vote for in the 2012 presidential election, as shown by the most recent impreMedia/Latino Decisions opinion poll.
"Lately, with the new census data and the 2012 presidential election almost upon us, there is once again talk about the importance of the Latino vote, especially in key states," said Matt Barreto, director of the poll.
"But... what happens if a large number of Latinos think that neither of the two parties is doing a good job? I think that we’re seeing a significant percentage of people who are undecided or who potentially may not go out to vote," said Barreto.
The poll asked opinions on how effectively the two main parties—Democratic and Republican—were reaching out to Latinos. This question was asked in February and then again in April. Fifty-two percent of respondents in February and 47% in the latest poll said the Democratic Party was doing a good job. When comparing both polls, this result is slightly different but also not very impressive, and "it’s moving in the wrong direction for the Democrats," said Barreto.
There are, however, a significant number of voters who think neither party cares too much about its relationship with Latinos: 33%, a third, thinks neither Democrats nor Republicans are making a great effort.
"When you analyze who that 33% is, you realize that many are undecided about who they will vote for next year," added Barreto, the poll’s director. "In 2010, we did a similar follow-up and saw that if they tend to stay undecided, many of these are people who will abstain. The effect of this is important for the Democrats."
Anthony Chavez, of San Francisco, California, voted for Obama in 2008 but is now undecided.
"I don’t see that he has achieved much progress. He does nothing but give in to the Republicans, and he has not fulfilled many of his promises," said Chavez.
According to the results, the "brand" of the GOP is severely damaged in the eyes of a large majority of this group, 66%—and at least half of them think that the party is being "hostile" toward Latinos.
"The dissatisfaction of Latino voters with the Republican Party, according to the poll, transcends generations, incomes and educational levels. In fact, the more integrated Latinos are into this country, the worse the image they have of that party seems," said Professor Gary Segura, a political scientist at Stanford University.
The percentage of Latino voters who think the Republican Party is "hostile" toward the Latino community or that "they don’t care too much" decreased slightly, going from 66% in February to 62% in April. Only 20% said the party does a good job reaching out to the community, the same 20%, apparently, that tends to be and vote Republican, said Barreto.
However, the most integrated Latino voters are the ones with the worst image of Republicans. Twenty-five percent of immigrants think Republicans are doing a good job reaching out to the community, while only 17% of those who are U.S. born agree with that.
"It is the opposite of what you would think, that the more Latinos progress financially and the more integrated they are, the more they will tend toward the Republican Party," said Segura. "Something is happening that prevents this."
This bad image is obvious in the responses given by some of those polled when asked why, despite the economic situation and immigration issues, they will continue voting Democrat.
"I simply don’t want a Republican in the White House again," said Silvia Portillo of Alexandria, Virginia. "The Republicans only look after the benefits of the richest."
However, that does not mean Democrats should rest on their laurels. Latino voters who think the party cares about reaching out to them represent only half of this population—and there seems to be a downward trend between the February poll and this latest one, conducted two months later, in early April.
"There’s strong correlation between this image of the party and the voting intentions. I think less than half is too few for the Democrats," said Barreto.
President Obama’s approval rate in the poll remains high and more or less stable, although it decreased slightly in the last two months: from 73% in February it went to 70% in April, a change that is within the margin of error and does not mean much.
But the voting intentions of Latinos remain more or less at a standstill. In the first survey of this series, only 43% said they were certain about voting for Obama in November 2012, while in the latest survey, 41% said it. Both times, another 12% and 14% said that they might vote for Obama, but could change their mind.
Although this number is low compared with the voting level a Democrat normally expects from Latinos (a minimum between 65% and 70%), the situation does not translate into more votes for Republicans. In that sense, only 20% of voters are sure or tend to think they will vote Republican—a number that is among the lowest that can be expected by this party.
When it comes to issues of interest for these voters, immigration decreased slightly compared to the February poll: 47% in February vs. 36% in April said this is the most important issue that they would like the president and Congress to address. However, immigration does continue to be the number one issue, closely followed by the economy and jobs, with 33%.
METHODOLOGY: LD polled 500 registered voters between March 24 and April 2 in the 21 states with the largest Hispanic populations, representing 94% of the electorate. Those interviewed were selected at random from voter lists. The margin of error is +/-4.38%. The interviews were conducted in English or Spanish as requested by the interviewee.
